Iran Press/ America: The general population has to vote and all candidates running for the presidency have to participate. This unique system makes the primaries a major date on the political calendar.
The primary elections known as the PASO - an open and mandatory vote - will decide a tight race to lead the conservative opposition bloc and confirm the ruling Peronist coalition's candidate, Economy Minister Sergio Massa. It will also show if outsider libertarian Javier Milei, flying high in polls, has truly clicked with voters.
“In lay terms, primaries are elections that take place within the parties to select the most representative or electable candidates of the party, coalition or grouping,” said Dr. Ariadna Gallo, a political sciences researcher at Argentina’s National Scientific and Technical Research Council.
After the primaries, the 2023 presidential election will be held on October 22. A candidate can win outright by gaining over 45% of the vote, or over 40% with a lead of ten percentage points over the runner-up. If neither of those conditions are met, a run-off is held within 30 days — this year, that’s scheduled for November 19.
Why are Argentina’s primaries called the PASO?
PASO stands for Primarias Abiertas, Simultáneas y Obligatorias, or Open, Simultaneous and Obligatory Primaries.
Primaries: The presidential candidate of each coalition is being chosen. The winning candidates still have to compete against each other in the presidential election to become the next president.
Open: The electorate as a whole can vote for any candidate they want: you don’t have to be a party member to participate.
Simultaneous: The elections take place on the same day.
Obligatory: in Argentina, this means both the candidates and the general population have to participate.
Argentina is the only country in the region where the primaries follow this specific format. This setup means the primaries can act as a strong predictor for the results of the general election because they tell us what percentage of the population voted for which coalition.
Who’s running in the primaries?
For UxP, the candidates are
Economy Minister Sergio Massa (President) and Chief of Staff Agustín Rossi (Vice)
Social leader Juan Grabois (President) and sociologist Paula Abal Medina (Vice)
Massa and Rossi are expected to win by a large margin.
For JxC, the candidates are
Former Security Minister Patricia Bullrich (President) and former deputy Luis Petri (Vice)
Buenos Aires Mayor Horacio Rodríguez Larreta (President) and Jujuy Governor Gerardo Morales (Vice)
Both tickets are viewed as competitive.
For La Libertad Avanza, there is only one presidential ticket:
Libertarian economist and deputy Javier Milei (President) and Deputy Victoria Villarruel (Vice)
Presidential hopefuls running in the primaries are called precandidatos in Spanish (“precandidates”).
This year, there are a record 26 candidates. Realistically, voters will not be able to inform themselves about all of them.
What should we expect this year?
One of the key questions is who will win the JxC primary, since polls indicate that both Bullrich and Larreta are in with a chance.
We will also see what percentage of the vote each coalition gets — but bear in mind that this is not a guarantee for how the population will vote in the presidential election on October 22. For example people may vote strategically or change their minds before the presidential vote.
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