Why it matters:
This sharp escalation marks one of the most serious diplomatic ruptures between the two countries in years. With treaties at risk, airspace closed, and embassies downsized, the standoff threatens not only bilateral relations but also regional stability across South Asia.
The big picture:
The flare-up began after an attack in Pahalgam killed 26 tourists. India blamed Pakistan for the incident and retaliated by suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, a critical accord governing shared water resources, and expelling Pakistan’s military attaché. Pakistan responded with a wide-ranging diplomatic and economic counterstrike.
What they’re saying:
At a high-level National Security Committee meeting chaired by Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, Pakistan’s civilian and military leadership decided:
To deny all Indian commercial flights access to Pakistani airspace.
To shut down the Wagah border and freeze all bilateral trade, including Afghan transit.
To expel all Indian defense attachés and cap India’s diplomatic mission to just 30 personnel.
To review and possibly cancel existing bilateral agreements, including the 1972 Simla Agreement.
Key points:
- India’s expulsion of Pakistan’s military attaché came swiftly after blaming Islamabad for the Kashmir attack.
- Pakistan’s response includes declaring Indian military envoys persona non grata.
- The Indus Waters Treaty, vital for Pakistan’s agricultural irrigation, is now in jeopardy—raising fears of water scarcity or flooding depending on India’s actions.
- Islamabad maintains that the treaty is an international obligation that cannot be unilaterally terminated.
Go deeper:
The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank in 1960, has been a rare example of sustained cooperation between India and Pakistan—even through multiple wars. India’s move to suspend it could provoke international concern, especially among countries relying on regional stability and water-sharing precedents. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s full-spectrum retaliation—military, diplomatic, and economic—signals a readiness to challenge India on multiple fronts, making de-escalation increasingly difficult without third-party mediation.
Mojtaba Darabi
