French moves:
President Emmanuel Macron announced in July that France would recognize Palestinian statehood, joining a growing list of countries supporting the two-state solution.
In a separate development, France suspended its counterterrorism cooperation with Mali and recalled two diplomats, signaling a broader shift in its foreign policy posture.
Israel’s response:
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar warned that Macron is “not welcome” in Israel unless France reverses its recognition plan, saying the initiative “harms Israel’s national and security interests”.
Israel is reportedly considering retaliatory measures, including:
Accelerating annexation of parts of the West Bank
Closing France’s consulate in Jerusalem
Reassessing French property claims in Israel, such as the Tomb of the Kings
What they’re saying:
A senior Israeli official told Politico that the issue is “not just about recognition, but about its scale,” adding that Israel “won’t bow to international pressure” on Palestinian affairs.
A French diplomat told Le Figaro, “If they want to play, we can play,” hinting at reciprocal actions, such as expelling Israeli diplomats from Paris.
European officials warn that relations between France and Israel are “set to deteriorate sharply,” with Macron seen as the driving force behind the diplomatic shift.
The European angle:
France’s ability to push for EU-wide sanctions against Israel is limited, as Germany and Hungary oppose such measures.
Macron’s initiative is part of a broader Franco-Saudi push to revive the two-state solution amid the Gaza war and settlement expansion.
What to watch:
An Israeli source cautioned that if France proceeds with formal recognition, Israel may respond by annexing additional West Bank settlements. This move could plunge bilateral relations into an unprecedented crisis.
Why it matters:
This standoff marks a turning point in European-Israeli relations, with France positioning itself as a leader in reshaping the diplomatic landscape around the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The fallout could reverberate across EU foreign policy, regional stability, and global efforts to end the war in Gaza.
Hossein Amiri - Hossein Vaez
