Iran Press/West Asia: Hassan Beheshtipour analyzed recent developments, including the fall of the Basha Al-Assad government, and outlined the factors contributing to Syria’s current state of uncertainty.
Beheshtipour highlighted the sequence of events leading to the fall of Aleppo, describing it as a major turning point. He attributed the Syrian army's lack of motivation to defend against Turkey-backed factions to prolonged economic hardships and inadequate support for military forces. “It was either a pre-arranged agreement or the result of economic neglect,” he said.
Following Aleppo's capture, he observed, the trajectory of opposition forces became clear: from Aleppo to Hama and eventually toward Damascus. Simultaneously, U.S.-backed Kurdish forces advanced from eastern Syria, aiming to consolidate their position in Deir ez-Zor.
A New Power Dynamic in Syria
Syria is now facing a complex power struggle involving three main factions:
Tahrir al-Sham – A coalition of extremist groups with significant influence.
The Free Syrian Army – Closely aligned with Turkey and the U.S.
Kurdish Forces – Supported predominantly by the U.S.
Tahrir al-Sham’s entry into Damascus and subsequent toppling of the government marked a dramatic escalation. Beheshtipour noted that Syria's interim prime minister has expressed a willingness to collaborate with rebel leaders to form a transitional government, aiming to prevent further destruction of the country.
Uncertain Role of Bashar al-Assad
The whereabouts of former President Bashar al-Assad remain unknown, though some reports suggest he may have sought refuge in the UAE. According to Beheshtipour, Assad’s failure to hold free elections during periods of relative stability was a critical mistake. This misstep, coupled with the Baath Party’s reluctance to genuinely democratize, undermined the government’s ability to withstand external pressures and internal dissent.
Regional and International Stakes
Beheshtipour pointed to Turkey's pivotal role in orchestrating recent developments, while highlighting Russia’s strategic interests. With key military bases in Tartus and near Latakia, Russia's future presence in Syria remains uncertain and subject to negotiation.
The expert also stressed the importance of Syria as a linchpin in supporting resistance movements against Israel. “The loss of Syria as a bridge for resistance forces is a significant blow to the region's broader anti-Israel strategy,” he noted.
A Path Forward Through Elections
As Syria navigates this transitional phase, the prospect of free elections looms large. Beheshtipour expressed skepticism about whether the factions backed by Turkey, the U.S., and other influential nations would allow fair elections. He underscored that decisions on Syria’s future will likely be made in international forums, heavily influenced by external actors such as Turkey, the U.S., Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
“The trajectory of Syria’s future hinges on the will of those supporting various factions. Elections could pave the way for a more stable future, but only if the international community prioritizes the interests of the Syrian people over geopolitical rivalries,” Beheshtipour concluded.
As the situation unfolds, the global spotlight remains fixed on whether Syria can achieve a peaceful transition and establish a government that genuinely represents its diverse population.
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