The big picture:
President Donald Trump has escalated pressure on Nicolás Maduro, repeating accusations of drug trafficking and threatening military action.
According to the Niskanen Center, even limited airstrikes targeting alleged trafficking infrastructure could displace tens of thousands.
By the numbers:
A short civil war could force 1.7 to 3 million people from their homes, while prolonged conflict could push the number above 4 million, with most refugees heading to Colombia and Brazil.
During Trump’s first term, Venezuelan migration surged from 1 million in 2017 to 5 million by 2021, driven largely by oil sanctions and restrictions on the state-owned oil and gas company PDVSA, which precipitated severe shortages of food and medicine.
What they're saying:
Analysts argue that U.S. military action would not restore security but instead fuel instability by activating grassroots resistance inside Venezuela.
They warn that it would create the very migration wave Washington claims it seeks to prevent.
Go deeper:
Americans and Cubans Support Venezuela Against U.S. Pressure
Hossein Amiri - ahmad shirzadian
