Why it matters:
Calls for military action against Iran have re-emerged amid regional tensions, but historical precedent suggests such a strategy could backfire. Iran’s response to national crises shows a recurring pattern of national unity, challenging assumptions that internal dissatisfaction could fuel regime collapse.
What he's saying:
In a recent op-ed titled “Trump Should Not Repeat Saddam’s Mistake: Don’t Attack Iran,” The Hill emphasizes that Iran is not a country on the verge of collapse, as some hardliners suggest. Instead, it is a resilient nation capable of uniting against foreign threats. The piece urges the United States to approach Iran with a realistic understanding of its cohesion and to commit to dialogue rather than aggression.
What they're saying:
The article draws parallels between the current situation and the 1980 Iraq-Iran War, when Saddam Hussein misjudged post-revolutionary Iran as weak and divided. Contrary to that belief, Iranians united across ethnic and political lines to defend their country, turning what Saddam expected to be a short conflict into an eight-year war with massive casualties.
Key points:
- Despite internal challenges such as economic hardship and political dissatisfaction, Iran consistently demonstrates strong national unity during external threats or disasters, countering narratives that the country is on the verge of collapse.
- The Hill warns that the U.S. risks repeating Saddam Hussein’s 1980 mistake—underestimating Iran’s internal cohesion post-revolution, which led to a prolonged and costly war rather than a swift regime collapse.
- The article stresses that military confrontation with Iran is likely to backfire and instead strengthen the regime. It urges U.S. policymakers, especially Trump-era influencers, to pursue strategic dialogue grounded in realism.
Go deeper:
The article critiques the assumptions held by some Western and Iranian opposition groups that economic sanctions have left Iran on the brink of collapse, creating an opportunity for external intervention. However, both historical and recent examples, like the Bandar Abbas explosion, demonstrate that Iranians tend to prioritize national unity in times of crisis. This undermines the argument that internal unrest will translate into support for foreign-led regime change.
ahmad shirzadian
