Why it matters:
The rise in gold prices—often viewed as a safe-haven asset—signals growing anxiety in global markets amid rising risks of recession and stagflation, particularly in the United States. Iran, like many economies, monitors these developments closely as they impact domestic currency, gold, and capital markets.
What the analysts say:
Bloomberg reports that gold has surged almost 18% so far in 2025, driven by economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Analysts now believe that profit-taking is a temporary interruption in the larger rally. "The tailwind is shifting from tariff anxiety to deepening fears of recession and stagflation," an FXStreet report explains.
Market outlook:
- The CME FedWatch Tool shows a growing probability of interest rate cuts, with a 33.2% chance for a cut in May and only a 9.4% chance of rates remaining unchanged in June.
- Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Index stands at -2.84%, reinforcing the view that economic contraction is already underway.
- Technical charts suggest that reclaiming the daily Pivot Point at $3,112 is key to testing the all-time high at $3,167.
- R1 Resistance at $3,170 may cap Friday’s gains, with slim chances of touching R2 at $3,226.
- On the downside, $3,057 serves as immediate support, with S2 seen near $2,998, just below the psychological $3,000 mark.
Go deeper:
FXStreet notes that the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, due Friday, may further influence market sentiment. Projections range from 80,000 to 200,000 jobs, with a consensus of 135,000. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to speak afterward, possibly providing clarity on future policy.
ahmad shirzadian
