Why it matters:
The potential collapse of the international order could lead to the erosion of the nonproliferation regime, increasing the likelihood that countries will pursue nuclear weapons as a means of ensuring their security in an uncertain geopolitical landscape.
The big picture:
The Trump administration's foreign policy is characterized by a retreat from international commitments and partnerships, particularly those that have historically provided security guarantees to U.S. allies.
Key points:
- The nonproliferation regime was believed to rely on a collective sense of security fostered by American power and cooperative international relationships, such as NATO which seems eroding.
- If the order collapses, countries may feel compelled to develop their own nuclear arsenals, fearing abandonment or coercion from the U.S.
What he's saying:
Gideon Rose in his article in Foreign Affairs highlights that the dismantling of the liberal order could lead to a proliferation of nuclear weapons among nations that once relied on U.S. security. He references political scientist Kenneth Waltz, who argued that nuclear proliferation might stabilize international rivalries through the concept of mutually assured destruction. However, the current geopolitical climate may challenge this hypothesis.
Go deeper:
Countries that feel insecure may pursue nuclear capabilities as a deterrent, leading to a more dangerous global landscape. The potential for increased nuclear proliferation poses significant risks, particularly during the critical phase when nations are on the brink of crossing the nuclear threshold.
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Hamed Shahbazi
