Marco Carnelos who served in the foreign policy staff of three Italian prime ministers between 1995 and 2011 added in an article, Whoever believes that it is possible to affect from the outside the complex relationship between Iranian and Iraqi Shias is living in a world of fantasy.
He said,The aftermath of the Iraqi elections on 12 May confirmed the country's troubled political cycle. Although the polls reflected the Iraqis' desire for political change, the dire realities of Iraqi politics provided the usual set of obstacles to the fulfilment of this choice.
On 3 July, a manual recounting of the votes began, while acts of sabotage toward the ballot boxes and the electoral machinery, added Carnelos.
In Iraq's post-electoral phase two aspects deserve particular attention: The internal power struggle among the different political parties, and the outcome of this struggle in the framework of Middle Eastern geopolitics,said former Italian diplomat,
The recounting could further prolong this uncertainty. Shia political Islamist parties, irrespective of their internal divisions, increased their seats, and they will continue to represent the main political driving force in the country. Secular Shias appear irrelevant, while the Sunni establishment has collapsed, added He.
Carnelos also said,The most important political shareholder seems now to be Muqtada al-Sadr, who has replaced - in this role - his arch-enemy, former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki; meanwhile, the outgoing premier, Haider al-Abadi, had a disappointing result affecting his chances to keep his current job.
As to Middle Eastern geopolitics, for a long time, Iraq, together with the Syrian, Yemeni and the Lebanese theatres, has been, and unfortunately still is, one of the battlegrounds of the US/GCC-Iran confrontation.
Since 2003, except for big US and UK contractors providing security services and procurement, US and Western investments in the new Iraq have not been politically remunerative. The country failed to become a transformative beacon of democracy in the region that would spark a similar process of change in neighbouring Iran, as neocon ideologues used to preach.
Notwithstanding its shortcomings, the Iraqi political process remains one of the most democratic compared to that of its neighbours,added He.
Nonetheless, and notwithstanding its shortcomings, the Iraqi political process remains one of the most democratic compared to that of its neighbours. Unfortunately, as history teaches, in the Middle East "more democratic" does not necessarily mean pro-West; often the opposite occurs,also said Italian former diplomat.
It would be premature, as well overly simplistic, to conclude that the latest Iraqi elections reflect a preference for a strong bond with Iran; but if this should be the case, it is an outcome that should be respected.
The alternative is to return to the traditional Western engagement toward Middle Eastern democratisation, which is a commitment à la carte, in other words, people should get the right to vote provided that they use it in the proper way,He also said.
Carnelos added that the issue of Iranian influence in Iraq is quite complex and nuanced for any analyst, particularly for those who are beloved of unrealistic narratives that is more akin to sorcery. Fifteen years ago, the most talented neocons, who had conceived the Iraq war, made a big gamble to empower Iraqi Shias to roll back Iran's perceived influence in the region.
Someone bet that the Arab nationalism of Iraqi Shias and the quietist theological perspective emanating from Najaf could be used to thwart the revolutionary wind coming from Tehran and stop Iranian expansion in the region.
So far, Iraqi political developments have shown that such a bet, although intriguing, has not turned into reality. Definitely, many Iraqi Shias are not Iranian stooges, but they are also not so willing to enrol themselves in any anti-Iranian crusade. Any attempt to force their will, presenting them a binary choice between Iran and the West, will produce no results.
Whoever believes that it is possible to affect - from the outside - the complex relationship between Iranian and Iraqi Shias is living in a world of fantasy,He also said.
Carnelos added,for centuries, Persian and Arab Shias have been dealing with each other along the Fertile Crescent according to their rules, practices and tradition, and they will continue to do so no matter what any clumsy armchair warrior or strategist who is sitting comfortably in some Western chancellery or think tank could fancy.
Irrespective of any political understanding among the Iraqi political parties, and of any outcome it will produce for Iraqi governance, like it or not, Iran will continue to be the most influential foreign player in Iraq. Tehran’s composite leadership will patiently accompany and adjust to any Iraqi political settlement, and Baghdad will do the same in the other way around,A former Italian diplomat said.
This will occur through a very slow and nuanced dynamic, totally incomprehensible and impenetrable for any Western political actor or sorcerer's apprentice, and it will do so completely detached from any Western timing and political agenda,added Carnelos.
